By Full Spectrum Sports Intelligence ·
Traditional sportsbooks are spending tens of millions on state races to protect the licensed model while prediction markets push federal CFTC jurisdiction. Here is the public-record picture and what it means for reading the edge.
The sportsbook side
DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, and bet365 have directed at least $72 million (some tallies near $100 million) into the 2026 cycle, primarily through the Win for America super PAC. That vehicle routes money to affiliate PACs on both sides of the aisle: American Future (Democratic-leaning) and American Conservative Fund (Republican-leaning). Ads funded by these groups often do not mention gambling at all; they focus on unrelated state issues while targeting legislative races that control taxes, licensing, advertising rules, and whether new products are allowed.
Key features of the strategy:
- Heavy focus on state legislatures, because those bodies set the actual operating rules and tax rates that generate the majority of sportsbook revenue.
- Bipartisan coverage that shifts by state depending on which party controls the relevant chambers.
- Exit from the American Gaming Association after the AGA took a hard line against sports event contracts on prediction markets. The books now operate more independently or through other vehicles.
- Targeted federal giving to national leadership PACs, but the dominant spend remains independent expenditures in state races.
The issue set includes blocking or slowing prediction-market sports contracts that bypass state taxes and licensing, opposing tax hikes or prop-bet restrictions, and supporting legalization or favorable rules in holdout states.
The prediction-market side
Kalshi and Polymarket (plus their founders) have together given at least $5 million this cycle to Republican and Democratic groups. Kalshi has also registered lobbyists in dozens of states and contributed to both the Republican and Democratic Attorneys General Associations and Governors Associations. The Coalition for Prediction Markets (Kalshi, Robinhood, Coinbase, Crypto.com, Underdog) has spent on state and federal lobbying as well. The absolute dollars are smaller than the sportsbook totals, but the focus is different: securing CFTC exclusive jurisdiction so that sports event contracts are treated as federally regulated swaps rather than state-licensed gambling.
Why the difference matters for research
Sportsbooks are defending a high-tax, high-compliance, state-by-state model that has already generated the bulk of their revenue. Prediction markets are trying to expand under a lower-fee, federally preemptive model that can reach users in states where traditional sports betting is not licensed. Both sides are transparent about the fight in public filings; the disagreement is over which regulator applies and who captures the fee/tax revenue.
Full Spectrum Sports Intelligence does not take either side of the regulatory fight and does not place tickets. The platform publishes the same public inputs the books use—points for and against, rest, public-ticket percentages, and lineup confirmation—so users can read the grade before tip-off and decide for themselves. See How the grades work for the exact inputs. Related research on the Utah complaint and market-maker structure is at SIG/SGP and the other side and the Utah Kalshi complaint research.
This page is original research drawn from public records. It is not legal advice, not a recommendation to place a ticket, and not an endorsement of any platform or regulatory outcome.