By Full Spectrum Sports Intelligence ·
Susquehanna International Group and its subsidiary SGP are the primary institutional market makers on Kalshi. This is research on how that structure works, who else they serve, and how Full Spectrum surfaces the edge without taking the other side.
Susquehanna International Group (SIG)
- The parent company, a privately held proprietary trading firm founded in 1987 in Bala Cynwyd, Pennsylvania.
- One of the largest quantitative trading firms in the world, with 3,500+ employees across 16+ offices globally.
- Trades essentially all listed asset classes — options, equities, ETFs, fixed income, energy, commodities, FX, crypto — using its own capital.
- In 2023, SIG established a dedicated prediction markets trading desk ("Susquehanna Predictions"), making it the first quant firm to do so.
Susquehanna Government Products, LLLP (SGP)
- A majority-owned subsidiary of SIG, incorporated in Delaware in 2003, headquartered at the same Bala Cynwyd address.
- Originally focused on trading U.S. government securities and related fixed-income products.
- In April 2024, SGP was onboarded as Kalshi's first dedicated institutional market maker — the entity that actually provides two-sided liquidity on the platform.
- It has a minor regulatory history, including a 2014 CME fine ($32,500) for an automated trading system that posted aberrant quotes in Lean Hog options.
In short, SIG is the overall firm; SGP is the specific legal entity SIG uses to operate its prediction-markets market-making desk on Kalshi. The Utah complaint names both because SIG is the parent and SGP is the operating entity directly providing pricing and liquidity on the exchange.
Who else they help in sporting and prediction markets
SIG/SGP (under the Susquehanna Predictions banner) does not stop at basic Kalshi liquidity:
- Rothera (with Robinhood): Joint venture that acquired the CFTC-registered MIAXdx exchange. SIG is a key partner and day-one liquidity provider. Rothera launched around June 2026 and quickly captured meaningful share while Robinhood continues routing volume to Kalshi as well.
- Cantor Fitzgerald block trades: SIG provides institutional-scale pricing and liquidity so Cantor can broker large block trades in Kalshi event contracts for hedge funds, family offices, and other institutions.
- Direct institutional hedging: Structured large hedges for commercial risks. Examples include the NEXTPredict conference ($12,000 premium for ~$3 million coverage against airport shutdowns), a tungsten price hedge for a metals distributor (with Pillar), small-business risk products, and World Cup-related promotional hedges (up to $500 million capacity cited).
- Sports markets specifically: SIG provides deep two-sided liquidity across sports event contracts on Kalshi — moneylines, spreads, totals, player props, and combos/SGPs. They have taken material inventory risk on high-volume games (e.g., large losses reported on the 2026 Knicks NBA Finals Game 4 comeback while overall volume set records). They also operate or have operated sports-focused desks (including references to SIG Sports / Nellie Analytics trading peer-to-peer exchanges).
- Other venues: OTC prediction-market access via BitGo / Susquehanna Crypto for institutional clients using crypto or stablecoin collateral.
They are described as the flagship / largest market maker on Kalshi and the predominant one on Rothera.
How market making works exactly
On a prediction market like Kalshi, contracts are binary (Yes/No) and priced between $0.00 and $1.00, where the price equals the market’s implied probability.
A market maker (institutional or otherwise):
- Continuously posts two-sided quotes — a bid (price they will buy at) and an ask (price they will sell at) — on both Yes and No sides.
- Captures the bid-ask spread when both sides fill (buy low from one trader, sell high to another). Example: bid 48¢ / ask 52¢ → 4¢ spread captured on a round-trip if both sides trade.
- Manages inventory risk. If more people buy Yes, the maker ends up short Yes (long No). They adjust quotes (shade prices) or hedge residual exposure to stay closer to neutral. They do not want a large directional bet; they want balanced flow.
- Uses quantitative models, sportsbook reference lines, news, and live data to set fair value quickly. Spreads tighten on liquid markets (often 0.5–2¢ on major contracts with SIG present) and widen on thin ones.
- Benefits from lower fees (makers often pay a fraction of the taker fee) and, as designated market makers, may receive reduced fees, higher position limits, and API priority in exchange for quoting obligations and high uptime.
Key difference from a traditional sportsbook: A sportsbook is a single dealer that sets the line and holds the other side as the house. On an exchange, multiple makers compete. The exchange itself matches orders and takes a fee; the market maker is a participant providing liquidity, not the house taking a permanent edge against every user. (Utah’s complaint alleges the practical effect is still house-like for retail users.)
On sports specifically, makers also price correlated products such as same-game parlays / combos. Platforms use RFQ (request-for-quote) systems that ping makers for a price on a custom multi-leg ticket. Liquidity is deeper on big NFL/NBA/MLB games and thinner on props or smaller sports.
How Full Spectrum helps Kalshi users without taking the other side
Kalshi and its market makers create the market and the prices. Full Spectrum is the research desk that reads those prices.
- We grade games and props using the same classes of inputs (points, rest, public ticket percentages, recent form, lineup confirmation) and publish the output.
- Users see the grade, the public-fade note, and the filtered legs. They decide whether any contract on Kalshi (or elsewhere) is mispriced relative to that research.
- We do not post quotes, take the other side of any ticket, or collect a trading fee. The research is the product.
In markets where the house or the market maker holds the residual risk, the edge for the user is knowing when the published price diverges from the research. That is the desk.
This page is research, not legal advice and not a recommendation to trade any contract.