By Full Spectrum Sports Intelligence ·
Two things follow for an analyst. A season of 38 matchdays means each club has a different sample size than an 18-team league, and the match calendar affects when information such as injuries and…
Three leagues, three structures
La Liga is Spain's top division, governed by the Liga Nacional de Fútbol Profesional and contested by 20 teams over 38 matchdays (Wikipedia: La Liga). Germany's Bundesliga has 18 teams, and its seasons run from August to May, with games on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays and a focus on Saturdays (Wikipedia: Bundesliga). Italy's Serie A has been a national round-robin league since the 1929–30 season and sits above Serie B in a promotion and relegation system (Wikipedia: Serie A).
Two things follow for an analyst. A season of 38 matchdays means each club has a different sample size than an 18-team league, and the match calendar affects when information such as injuries and lineups arrives.
Who regulates the market
- Spain: the Dirección General de Ordenación del Juego (DGOJ) licenses online operators nationally (DGOJ).
- Italy: the Agenzia delle Dogane e dei Monopoli (ADM) issues licences, and sports betting is described as legal and regulated (ADM, Wikipedia: Gambling in Italy).
- Germany: licensed operators sit on the whitelist kept by the Gemeinsame Glücksspielbehörde der Länder (GGL) under the 2021 Interstate Treaty (GGL whitelist).
Why German markets look different
The GGL says in-play betting is limited mainly to final-result bets, plus next-goal style bets in low-scoring sports, and that bets on amateur events and on fouls or sanctions are prohibited (GGL: sport and horse betting online). That means the menu of markets, and so the data a researcher can observe, is narrower in Germany than in places with no such limits.
What an analyst can take from this
- Do not assume a market seen in one country exists in another. Check the regulator's rules first.
- Compare price margins league by league using the overround method described in the English Premier League article.
- Treat the figures here as structure, not performance. This article draws no conclusions about pricing efficiency, since our sources do not measure it.
Sources
- La Liga (Wikipedia)
- Bundesliga (Wikipedia)
- Serie A (Wikipedia)
- DGOJ (Spain)
- ADM (Italy)
- Gambling in Italy (Wikipedia)
- GGL whitelist (Germany)
- GGL: sport and horse betting online
Sources
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Liga
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bundesliga
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Serie_A
- https://www.ordenacionjuego.es/
- https://www.adm.gov.it/portale/home
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambling_in_Italy
- https://www.gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/de/fuer-spielende/uebersicht-erlaubter-anbieter-whitelist
- https://gluecksspiel-behoerde.de/de/fuer-gluecksspielanbieter/sport-und-pferdewetten-im-internet