By Full Spectrum Sports Intelligence ·
The Premier League is contested by 20 clubs. Each plays the others twice, once at home and once away, for 38 matches a season, running from August to May (Wikipedia: Premier League). That fixed…
Where the money is
Great Britain's regulator reports that remote (online) betting gross gambling yield was £2.6bn in April 2024 to March 2025, led by football at £1.3bn and horse racing at £766.7m (Gambling Commission annual statistics). The report covers all football, not only the Premier League, but the league is the main draw for UK customers.
The three-way price
Most soccer markets start with the 1X2: home win, draw, away win. Because the draw is a real outcome, a fair price has three probabilities that add to 100%. Bookmakers quote prices that add to more than 100%. The excess is the overround, also called the margin or "vig", and represents the bookmaker's expected profit (Wikipedia: Overround).
Margins have narrowed
A study of six large bookmakers found the average margin on Premier League matches fell from 9% in the 2005/06 season to 4% in 2017/18. Lower leagues stayed wider: from 11% to 6% across the EFL, and from 11% to 8% in the National League (Wikipedia: Overround, citing the study). The pattern reflects how heavily the top league is traded, though the source does not say why, and these figures are historical, not current.
Why accumulators change the math
When several selections are combined into a double, treble or accumulator, the overround on each leg compounds, which is to the customer's detriment compared with the true odds (Wikipedia: Overround). Understanding that effect is a core part of reading any soccer price.
What an analyst can take from this
- Convert any 1X2 price to implied probabilities and sum them. The total above 100% shows the margin built in.
- Compare margins across leagues to see where the market is thin or thick.
- Remember that historical margin studies describe past seasons.
Sources
- Premier League (Wikipedia)
- Overround (Wikipedia)
- Gambling Commission: Industry statistics, April 2024 to March 2025